Costa Mesa has spent four years planning for 11,760 new homes by 2029, and the number keeps changing. It peaked at 17,042 units of zoned capacity. A single council meeting in March 2026 cut it by 5,863. Then 95 new sites added back about 6,996. None of these changes moved a single household into a new front door. The figure on the city's books measures what property owners are allowed to build. It does not forecast what they will build, and in Costa Mesa the owners have shown they will leave the plan when staying in it costs them something.
For a buyer weighing Costa Mesa against Newport Beach, Huntington Beach or Irvine this fall, that difference matters. The headline numbers suggest a wave of new construction, while the city's own filings show a zoning exercise aimed at state certification. Most of the supply it promises depends on decisions by private landowners and a state agency, and none of those decisions has been made yet.
The Plan Is a List of Permissions
Costa Mesa says plainly what its housing element does. On its housing element page, the city says its role "is to establish the appropriate zoning and permitting procedures," that it "does not build the units and cannot force a property owner to build residential units," and that each owner decides whether to keep the current use or redevelop 50 percent or more of the property for residential or mixed use.
The tool is a Mixed-Use Overlay District. It sits on selected commercial and industrial "opportunity sites" and adds a residential option on top of the existing zoning. The city says it designed the overlay "to avoid upzoning Costa Mesa's existing residential neighborhoods." The only site handled differently is the Fairview Developmental Center, which gets its own specific plan.
So the 11,760 figure, the state's Regional Housing Needs Allocation for 2021 to 2029, is a requirement to zone for that many homes. Builders still decide what goes up. The Daily Pilot described the 17,042-unit peak as places where housing "could be placed, even if they were unlikely to ever be built."
Why the Biggest Landowners Asked to Leave
The overlay was supposed to be "additive," one more option an owner might consider someday. Nobody expected housing on top of South Coast Plaza. In October 2025, a California appeals court changed that in New Commune DTLA LLC v. City of Redondo Beach. According to the Daily Pilot's account, the ruling found that a residential overlay effectively erases a parcel's existing zoning, so any new development must be at least 50 percent residential at a minimum density of 20 units per acre.
After that ruling, the overlay could restrict what an owner builds, not just add an option. At the March 17, 2026 council meeting, C.J. Segerstrom & Sons asked that its 14 properties be removed from the opportunity list. A land use attorney for Anduril Industries asked the same for a 4-acre parcel at 3333 Susan St., which Drawbridge Realty had bought the previous October and leased long-term to Anduril. That parcel was the site of Hive Live, a 1,050-unit mixed-use plan that was scrapped once the defense contractor wanted the land. South Coast Plaza and the Costa Mesa Women's Club were also on the original list.
The removals cost the plan a net 5,863 units, including 1,300 designated for low- and very low-income tenants, and pushed the city back below its target.
| Stage of the plan | Zoned capacity, as reported |
|---|---|
| Peak capacity using the overlay | 17,042 units |
| Net change after March 17, 2026 removals | minus 5,863 units |
| 95 replacement sites identified for Sept. 1, 2026 adoption | about 6,996 additional units |
| State requirement, 2021 to 2029 | 11,760 units |
Every row in that table records a change in permissions. A plan that can lose a third of its capacity at one meeting reflects landowner incentives far more than any construction schedule for the next few years.
Mayor John Stephens said much the same when the council adopted the revised plan on Sept. 1, as reported by the Daily Pilot:
"Who knows in the end whether it's going to be the right thing? Who knows whether it's going to actually yield the house units we need to reduce the cost of housing? But it's the best thing we can do at this time."
Fairview: The Largest Site Got Smaller and Still Has No Builder
Fairview Developmental Center is the one place where a large block of new homes is clearly intended. It is a 110-acre state-owned site. City staff had said it could hold up to 4,000 units. In September 2026 the council approved 2,300, citing overcrowding and traffic concerns. HousingWire reported that staff called 3,450 units the "financially feasible" number for a builder and warned that the lower count may force the city to revise its housing element again.
The approved plan includes 920 homes for low- and very low-income residents and 25 acres of open space, according to Voice of OC. The Orange County Register reported that the state has not yet selected a master developer and that groundbreaking may be years away. The plan also keeps Mesa Linda Golf Course intact for now and makes negotiating use of Merrimac Way the first option if secondary access is needed.
That leaves a site approved at about two-thirds of the density staff considered feasible, with no developer selected. It will not change how many homes a buyer can choose from in 2027.
What Remains Unsettled This Fall
Three processes are still open, and each one affects how much local control the city keeps over what gets built.
- The state lawsuit. On July 16, 2026, Attorney General Rob Bonta sued Costa Mesa and four other cities. The petition asks a court to require a compliant plan and rezoning within 120 days. HousingWire reported that the city disputes the suit, saying it has kept pursuing housing without a certified plan.
- State certification. The council adopted Resolution No. 2026-38 on Sept. 1 and sent the amended element to the California Department of Housing and Community Development. The city's page lists it as submitted, not certified. HCD states that a jurisdiction without a substantially compliant housing element is subject to the builder's remedy, which lets qualifying projects with affordable units bypass local zoning rules.
- The airport override. The Orange County Airport Land Use Commission found parts of the rezoning inconsistent with the land use plan around John Wayne Airport. The city responded by cutting allowed heights in the North Costa Mesa Specific Plan from 315 feet to 108 feet and removing the overlay from parcels inside airport safety buffer zones. On Sept. 1 the council began the formal overrule process, and the Daily Pilot reported that the final vote could take place by Oct. 17.
All three could still shift what is allowed near a particular block. None of them changes the basic mechanism. Zoning sets what an owner may build, and an owner who prefers the current use can keep it.
What the Resale Market Is Doing Meanwhile
Under the housing debate, Costa Mesa's resale market has more homes for sale, and sellers are still getting their prices. One major listing portal's research snapshot for September 2026 shows these key indicators:
| September 2026 | Median sold price | Active listings | Median days on market | Sale-to-list ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Mesa | $1,513,500 | 213, up 24.6% year over year | 52 | 100% |
| Huntington Beach | $1,450,000 | 602 | 50 | 99% |
| Irvine | $1,452,500 | 1,062 | 53 | 98% |
| Newport Beach | $3,275,000 | 499 | 75 | 97% |
In September 2026, Costa Mesa had about a quarter more listings than a year earlier, and its median time on market was up roughly 15 percent. Homes still closed at 100 percent of list price. That is the highest ratio of the four cities and above Newport Beach's 97 percent. Countywide MLS snapshots point the same way for this price range. The $1 million to $2 million band sat at a median of 40 days on Sept. 28, 2026, against 46 days for Orange County overall, and at 39 days in the Oct. 5 snapshot.
These figures come from a single data provider for one month and have not been confirmed by a second city-level source. Still, they fit the zoning story. Buyers have more listings to look at in Costa Mesa this fall, but the overlay sites and Fairview are not competing with those homes. The resale inventory is the market a buyer has to work with right now.
How to Read the Sites Map Around a Specific Address
The city publishes a Housing Element Sites Map that shows the opportunity sites. A highlighted commercial parcel near a home means its owner has the option to redevelop with housing. Whether that happens depends on the owner's economics, and the March removals show how quickly those economics can lead an owner to leave the list.
Built projects in Costa Mesa have tended to be smaller and specific. The Daily Pilot reported in August 2025 that Avon River Apartments, a 76-unit affordable conversion of a former Travelodge at 1400 Bristol St., was under construction with an opening expected the following spring. Voice of OC reported in May 2025 that Costa Mesa Senior, 70 affordable units at 695 W. 19th St., was approved that March with completion forecast for late 2027. Both moved forward because a specific owner and developer committed to a specific site.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the Mixed-Use Overlay rezone existing single-family streets? The city says the overlay applies to selected commercial and industrial properties and was designed to avoid upzoning existing residential neighborhoods.
Is Costa Mesa's housing element certified? As of Oct. 12, 2026, the city's page lists the Sept. 1 amendment as submitted to HCD for certification, with no certification posted.
When could Fairview homes be built? The council approved a land use plan for 2,300 homes in September 2026. The state has not yet chosen a master developer, and the Register reported that groundbreaking may be years away.
If you are weighing a Costa Mesa home near an opportunity site, or want to know how this fall's listing numbers apply to a specific street, West Life Realty can go through the sites map and recent closed sales with you parcel by parcel. To see where your own property stands first, start with an instant home valuation.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
